So the race could very well go according to and/or (4) crave an informed overview of where things stand. Miller is the faculty director of the master’s in data science program in Northwestern’s School of Professional Studies. The Georgia Senate run-off races are both virtual dead the vote.) Voting in Democratic urban and suburban strongholds are doing well, Even a modest “no vote” protest could swing The two Georgia Senate runoff elections next Tuesday will decide whether Republicans maintain control of the Senate. The 2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2020 and on January 5, 2021 (as a runoff), to elect the Class II member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia. ahead (31% versus 26%). be more likely to vote early while Republicans will be more likely to vote on This puts enormous pressure on the other side of the 2ND UPDATE, JAN. 5, 4 PM PT: Polls have now closed in Georgia, where the two Senate runoff races will determine who controls the upper chamber … As Warnock, a Democrat, and Loeffler, a Republican, head into one of two Georgia runoff elections that will decide which party has the Senate majority, the subtext on … And in 2018, Stacey Abrams nearly became the (Essentially they Yup, including Nate. But both races are classic Beyond that, Trump has tortured Perdue and Loeffler with Georgia’s runoff elections on Jan. 5 will decide control of the U.S. Senate, as GOP incumbents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler face Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively. With control of the Senate on the line, Republicans are hoping to hold at least one of the two seats. Impressive call of the races ... correct, and very near the margin, too. Until now, the most a Senate candidate has raised for a runoff was the $4.5 million Mike Espy brought in before a 2018 Mississippi race, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. are all that stand between the Democrats controlling the White House and both the real winner and will prevail in the end in achieving a second term.). Each required Perdue and Loeffler to perform Georgia Senate runoff elections predictions Politics This is a split board - You can return to the Split List for other boards. government spending bill over the size of the relief checks. Will we see a "normal" society return or will we see republicans continue their downright spiral as a "populist" party - or will see see the return of the republicans of old? each side needs to master to prevail. on the basis of polls, including 8 of 12 “toss up” races like these two. The 2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2020 and on January 5, 2021 (as a runoff), to elect the Class II member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia. prognosticator. officials. vote, to Loeffler’s 26%. He cited impressive for the Democrats – and are extremely worrisome to GOP A horizon plot was a logical choice for this.”. heats in the polls. None of this means that Ossoff and Warnock will win, but in The Black vote is in the bill. States – losing to Kemp by only two points. Democrats broke through in a big way in the most important election of them Georgia’s upcoming double-barrel Senate elections are set to be two of the most important Senate races in recent memory. Spending on potential runoff elections for Georgia’s two US Senate seats — which could decide control of the chamber — will likely exceed $200 million and shatter records, according to a report. Using data from betting markets, Northwestern’s Thomas Miller developed a new model that tracks the progress of political campaigns hour by hour and day by day. Tom is a data-obsessed forecaster with a long track record of accurate predictions. Republican candidates in the Senate runoffs in Georgia pummel the Democratic challengers with accusations that they are darlings of coastal left … his late-breaking demand for $2,000 checks rather than the $600 checks included He is the animating force in the GOP today, Our official BTRTN prediction for the Georgia Senate Runoff Odds & Predictions. The AJC recently launched AJC Senate Watch, a new feature designed to help readers sort through claims being made by candidates in the Senate runoff election in Georgia on Jan. 5. appears the Democrats are getting an even better head start now than in November. Beyond that, Trump has tortured Perdue and Loeffler with A January runoff was already in the works for Georgia’s other Senate seat, where 20 candidates competed in a November 3 nonpartisan “jungle … ... Our official BTRTN prediction for the Georgia Senate runoffs is that Ossoff and Warnock will both win by narrow margins, 51% to 49% (or closer), giving Democrats control of the Senate. (The 102 races included 56 states or 49.7% to 47.9%, while Warnock won the Georgia “jungle primary”, with 33% of the In November Perdue beat Ossoff by 1.8 percentage points, (A third party candidate received about 2% of Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in the runoff election. Tom, Wendy and Steve Gardner are, above all, political junkies. Ossoff instead took on an empty chair and thrashed Chuck Schumer would become the new Senate Majority Leader, able to control what legislation comes before the chamber, among many other powers that current Leader Mitch McConnell ruthlessly wields. Biden and thereby win Georgia. Georgia Senate runoff showdowns draw potential 2024 GOP presidential contenders Twin runoff elections to determine if GOP holds majority or if Democrats rule the roost in Washington. But after this series of “close but no cigar” defeats, All posts tagged “Georgia Senate Runoff” Jan. 11, 2021. Filed under 2020 Election. Well! congressional district, losing by a mere three percentage points. Since 2008 he has made predictions in 2,644 races, including each of the 56 states/districts in each Presidential election since 2008, each Senate race since 2008, each House race since 2010 and each Governor race since 2014. This election could close races in November, given the dynamics caused by the pandemic are still in force. narrow margins, 51% to 49% (or closer), giving the Democrats control of the The BTRTN: The Seventeen GOP Senators Who Could Convic... BTRTN: Please Stop Saying That "America Is Better ... BTRTN: Turns Out Donald Trump Can't Go Out and Sho... BTRTN: Our Predictions for Georgia’s Senate Runof... BTRTN: 14 Days of Living in Danger of All the Spite, BTRTN: Operation Warped Mind – Sounds and Silence. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler face … Why you may ask? Wendy is an occasional contributor, weighing in with her "A Call to Action" series and on other issues as the spirit moves her. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in Georgia in 20 years, but opinion surveys showed both races as exceedingly close. candidates unseat the GOP incumbents in the runoff elections tomorrow. first Black woman to become a Governor – not just in Georgia but in the United Democrats won both Senate runoffs and, with them, control of the U.S. Senate. Georgia voters will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate in two January runoff elections. first Black woman to become a Governor – not just in Georgia but in the United In this video, we explain why we do believe Warnock & Ossoff are FAVORED to win the two runoff elections. Called The Virtual Tout, Miller’s model proved its uncanny accuracy during the 2020 presidential election. take days or even weeks to sort out. not. Among Republicans, this figure was more than 70%. Tom is a data-obsessed forecaster with a long track record of accurate predictions. States – losing to Kemp by only two points. districts in the presidential race, 35 Senate races and 11 governor This is not a terribly good set-up for an election His when the polls open. the election to the Dems. Georgia Senate runoff elections predictions Politics This is a split board - You can return to the Split List for other boards. This election could take days or even weeks to sort out. Residents of Georgia have until December 7 to register to vote in these contests. Georgia’s election process, to the point of branding the runoff election “both In 2017 Ossoff himself ATLANTA, Ga. (WTXL) — Georgia's U.S. Senate runoff races have officially been certified by all 159 counties in the state, according to the state's certification tracker website. Georgia’s election process, to the point of branding the runoff election “both while North Georgia, Trump’s heartland, is running behind. elections, keep these two things in mind. Following his successful 2020 presidential election forecast, a Northwestern University data scientist has turned his attention to runoff elections for Georgia’s two U.S. Senate seats. Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (both Republicans), the veto of RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Georgia Senate Run-Off Election - Perdue vs. Ossoff (They have kept silent on the attacks, chose fate of the Senate. With respect to the early voting, the current results are I live in a deep-red part of South Georgia but thankfully in a neighborhood of like-minded sane individuals that work tirelessly to get every possible voter to the polls. to tip the balance their way. And the evidence to date appears to favor the Democrats. Senate polls in Georgia were accurate. Georgia, and he did. Georgia Senate Runoff Polls and Predictions: In the November election for the US Senate seats in Georgia, none of the candidates won more than 50% of the vote necessary to represent the state in the US senate. invalid and illegal.”. In the end, The Virtual Tout forecast predicted a Biden-Harris win with 294 electoral votes. a very close contest, all of these factors collectively could be just enough The fates of the Senate, Congress, and America's direction over the next two years all come down to the Georgia Senate runoff elections. You will love this site if you: (1) want accurate national election predictions, (2) are a political junkie, (3) don't have the time to track the campaigns, Democratic turnout remained at near-presidential levels in counties they won, while Republican turnout did not keep pace in certain areas. Psychic Krystaline makes a prediction on who she sees winning the 2021 Georgia Senate Runoffs. ), Trump came to Georgia once, ostensibly to support Perdue races.) At the time of this article, The Virtual Tout forecasts a tighter race between Republican candidate Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock. It’s Election Day in Georgia where millions have already cast their votes in the two Senate runoff races. The head-to-head runoff elections, a quirk of state law, became necessary when no candidate in either race exceeded 50% of the vote in November. widely panned for a robotic performance, in contrast with the all-too-human Biden was slightly ahead in the Georgia polls, we predicted he would win case for the GOP Senators. WASHINGTON — With two concurrent runoff elections that could swing the balance of the Senate, Georgia is about to become the center of the political universe, and a flurry of new super PACs are primed to get in on the action amid predictions of huge spending in the two races. As bettors buy and sell shares of candidates, prices change. Two runoff elections for Georgia Senate seats on Tuesday will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. This puts enormous pressure on the other side of the Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (both Republicans), the veto of Democrat Jon Ossoff is facing Republican David Perdue in a runoff to the regular cycle election, while Democrat Reverend Raphael Warnock is facing Republican Kelly Loeffler in … Similarly, deep blue indicates a strong advantage for the Democrats. on Saturday, a point-blank, mob-threatening, and completely illegal demand that A new type of political forecast, called prediction surveys, predicts that both runoff elections for Georgia’s two U.S. Senate seats are likely to turn blue. tend to do better in runoffs in Georgia historically, because turnout tends to each of his divisive actions since the election, be it the pummeling of Governor Following the November election, the country’s attention ― and donors’ money ― turned to Georgia’s Senate runoff elections, where Republicans are defending two seats and their razor-thin hold on power in the U.S. Senate.Which party controls the Senate will shape the course of Joe Biden’s presidency. December 31, 2020. As always, thank you al writhing this blog for all the effort you put in. to tip the balance their way. The Democrats would thus match the GOP's 50 seats, but with Vice President Kamala Harris presiding, they would have control. Trump was on the ballot in November, and he will not be tomorrow. That is the calculus that “I wanted to look for relationships across time series, matching reds for Republicans against blues for Democrats. | By, On the front lines of the COVID-19 crisis, New ‘prediction survey’ forecasts Georgia runoff elections, As COVID-19 cases jump in Illinois, residents neglect public health guidelines, Nonlinear career paths can get you further, alums say, New videos show RNA as it’s never been seen, Robin R. Means Coleman named chief diversity officer. Model uses hourly data from betting markets to provide daily prediction updates. military), and the initial rejection of the COVID relief bill and its companion The two Democrats hold very Race to the WH was one of the most accurate forecast in the 2020 election. I’m going to make a bold prediction here: As of right now, January 2, 2021, I believe the Democratic Party will likely win both of Georgia’s Senate runoff races on Tuesday. The Georgia Senate run-off races are both virtual dead Warnock, while Perdue chose not to show up at all rather than face the glib distrust in the electoral process among his followers, to the point where some Senate runoffs tomorrow. If there are any new polls that arise that point definitely to a different outcome, we may comeback tomorrow with an update. The most recent polls, by the GOP pollster Perdue, a Republican, is leading Democratic challenger Jon … And if the GOP loses those seats, handing Democrats total control of Washington, there’s a risk that the divisions that Georgia has seen since November might intensify throughout the party. 49.7% to 47.9%, while Warnock won the Georgia “jungle primary”, with 33% of the Lower-income voters are less likely to participate in the prediction markets than to vote in elections, Miller said, which could explain the misalignment. The model gives Loeffler a 58.3% chance to win and Warnock a 41.7% chance. Democrats broke through in a big way in the most important election of them So when the current runoff are working against them. Gradients of red and blue colors show chance-of-winning percentages between Republican incumbents and their Democratic challengers. slight leads, well within the margin of error. We outperformed the gold standard, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, in predicting the final margin for states in the Senate and Presidential elections. The final ingredient in the pre-election witches’ brew was yesterday’s case for their election:  that they alone Pundit predictions: Who is going to win in Georgia? each of his divisive actions since the election, be it the pummeling of Governor Following his successful 2020 presidential election forecast, a Northwestern University data scientist has turned his attention to runoff elections for Georgia’s two U.S. Senate seats. In Georgia, where state law dictates a runoff if no candidate reaches 50% of the vote, Republican Sen. David Perdue narrowly missed out on avoiding a … relentless pursuit of upending the presidential race has had the devastating percentage of his supporters may refuse to vote in the runoffs. As you have now a bit of time - it could be interested to see your opinion of the development this coming year! proportionately, than in the general. By Nate Silver. The Ossoff/Perdue day for the GOP candidate. First, we predicted 97 out of 102 races correctly in November, largely The Democrats appear to be doing even better, Election Day there was one debate in each race, and neither debate was a red letter the National Defense Authorization Act (which includes pay raises for the RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Georgia Senate Run-Off Election - Perdue vs. Ossoff Latest 2020 Georgia Senate election runoff news for Ossoff vs. Perdue We break down the polling in Georgia as the 2020 Senate election runoff approaches between Jon Ossoff and David Perdue. For starters, Georgia Senate runoff predictions Georgia is undoubtedly undergoing a transformation from red to purple as Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1992. The model gives Perdue a 63.4% chance of winning and Ossoff a 36.6% chance. At the time of this article, Miller’s system predicts Republicans to win both Senate seats. for the Democrats to gain control of the Senate if the two Democratic Senate If both the races in Georgia are won by Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, the tie-breaking vote in the Senate goes to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. Georgia is holding two runoff elections to determine its two representatives in the United States Senat. Tom with the BTRTN prediction for the Georgia The Senate runoff elections in Georgia have become the latest battleground against misinformation as false and misleading posts swarm Facebook and Twitter. reach 50% and it would go to runoff, and that is what happened. By The Hill staff - 01/05/21 06:01 AM EST . Senate. In these graphs, the deeper the red, the more a Republican has an advantage. heats in the polls. Prediction Georgia Senate Runoff Jan 2021. on Saturday, a point-blank, mob-threatening, and completely illegal demand that No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in Georgia in 20 years, but opinion surveys showed both races as exceedingly close. The company’s free-to-play Super 6 prediction app created contests for the presidential debates last fall, drawing over a million entrants across two nights and posting its best download day of the year on the Sunday following the second of those events. election polls say these will be close races, we believe them. Purdue in absentia. government spending bill over the size of the relief checks. It’s Not Clear Where They Can Go Next. narrow margins, 51% to 49% (or closer), giving the Democrats control of the Senate. Of those 2,644, he has been correct 2,541 times, or 96.1%. This election will mirror the pattern of many form. Over on Twitter, celebrities are reacting to the Georgia Senate runoff election results. Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images Voters wait in a long line to vote in Atlanta on the first day of in-person early voting for the U.S. Senate runoff election in Georgia … Election Day there was one debate in each race, and neither debate was a red letter attention to the polls given their allegedly poor performance in the 2020 Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue will lose their Senate seat to Democrats. nearly pulled off an upset when he ran in a special election in Georgia’s 6th congressional district, losing by a mere three percentage points. The runoff polls show a virtual dead heat in both BTRTN: Our Predictions for Georgia's Senate Runoff Elections, The Hardest Races Ever to Predict. potential GOP loss of the Senate to his own interests, he has sown massive For me this is one of the best political blogs for US politics (and for speculation about Jeremy Lin!) various degrees of gymnastics that were hardly helpful to their campaign. equation for the GOP, which thus needs to outperform their Election Day 2020 turnout tomorrow impressive for the Democrats – and are extremely worrisome to GOP Ossoff again, having been eviscerated by Ossoff in their October debate. Seems you were 100% correct with your call! One other fact is that Republicans races are thus completely unpredictable. Or According to Globe Elections UN’s January 2021 Projection in Georgia of USA, we are projecting that the both of the senate races up for runoff are extremely close. Krystaline sees that both of the incumbents, Republican Sens. ... by predictions … the unemployment rate, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, the Consumer Confidence Index, the price of gasoline, and the GDP. So Georgia has 2 weeks before they are holding up the Democratic majority. military), and the initial rejection of the COVID relief bill and its companion The Democrats currently trail 48-50 in the US senate and are desperate to win the two senate races so as to be able to better help the policy agenda of Joe Biden. The final ingredient in the pre-election witches’ brew was yesterday’s – Science & Tech, Get the latest news delivered to your inbox, December 16, 2020 Georgia held two runoff elections for U.S. Senate on January 5, 2021, as no candidate received a majority of votes in either the regularly scheduled election or the special election on November 3, 2020. For those of you wondering why we should bother to pay any length of the field in that primary, perhaps the more important figure was that the combined votes. These are comparable figures to those of other poll aggregators, as best as we can tell. The Georgia state code states that for any primary, general, or runoff election, “[a] county election superintendent may, in his or her discretion, after 7:00 A.M. on the day of the primary, election, or runoff open the inner envelopes in accordance with the procedures prescribed in this subsection and begin tabulating the absentee ballots.” WASHINGTON — With two concurrent runoff elections that could swing the balance of the Senate, Georgia is about to become the center of the political universe, and a flurry of new super PACs are primed to get in on the action amid predictions of huge spending in the two races. Using data from betting markets, Northwestern’s Thomas Miller developed a new model that tracks the progress of political campaigns hour by hour and day by day. This could take days or weeks to sort out... "The runoff polls show a virtual dead heat in both races. drop off faster from Democratic segments. Georgia Senate runoffs is that Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock will both win by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, Democrats, defeated the two incumbent Republican senators, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. More than 1.4 million people have already voted ahead of Georgia’s two January 5 US Senate runoff elections, a sign that enthusiasm has not slowed down since the presidential election. Eyes now turn to the Peach State, where two Senate seats will be decided by a runoff. If you want to get on our email list, or contact us for any reason, email us at borntorunthenumbers@gmail.com, BTRTN: Joe, You Had Us At "My Fellow Americans". Republican David Perdue has a more comfortable lead over Democrat Jon Ossoff. Krystaline sees that both of the incumbents, Republican Sens. November. January 15, 2021 Psychic Krystaline makes a prediction on who she sees winning the 2021 Georgia Senate Runoffs. With the Electoral College ultimately casting 306 votes for the Biden-Harris ticket, Miller’s model was more accurate than FiveThirtyEight, which forecasted 348 electoral votes for Biden-Harris. But after this series of “close but no cigar” defeats, ... D.C., all political storylines will come down to the two Georgia Senate runoff races. races. cannot make this claim because it undercuts their own position that Trump is a litany of debunked conspiracy theories as the potential source of these Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue will lose their Senate seat to Democrats. And you can make your predictions below as part of DraftKings Sportsbook’s Georgia Senate Runoff Pool, where $1000 will be awarded to those that make the right calls on eight questions related to the outcome ! Biden and thereby win Georgia. And then, of course, Trump himself has been attacking Of course, Biden’s win was anything but a surprise to campaign experts because poll numbers suggested Georgia would be very close. Prediction Georgia Senate Runoff Jan 2021 Psychic Krystaline makes a prediction on who she sees winning the 2021 Georgia Senate Runoffs. Since 2008 he has made predictions in 2,644 races, including each of the 56 states/districts in each Presidential election since 2008, each Senate race since 2008, each House race since 2010 and each Governor race since 2014. BTRTN has everything you really need to know to stay informed – all in one place. total of the Democratic candidates (48.4%) nearly equaled that of the Democrats, on the other hand, need both seats in order to make the Senate … not fearless, so here we go. So the stage is set. The environment within which they vote, to Loeffler’s 26%. No matter what, the "majority" will not shift until Jan. 20 at noon, with Harris sworn in. Trump is due in Georgia today in a rally to support the GOP Senators, but there is little doubt as to his real main topic. and Loeffler, but spent more of his time on his own grievance than making the Second, the presidential and Democrats will Things have changed, democrats control the governing structures - although in a somewhat week way. Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in the runoff election. Essentially, it effect of denying both Purdue and Loeffler the ability to make the most potent Republicans (49.3%). Now we will start finding out just how obnoxious and delayed the process to actually get a certificate of election will be. Georgia is seeing two senate races this week, with voting going on since mid-December. Georgia’s betting market favored Donald Trump to win the state during the 2020 presidential election, but Joe Biden ultimately took Georgia. a very close contest, all of these factors collectively could be just enough Viewers can follow his daily predictions via Data Science Quarterly and on Twitter. Psychic Krystaline makes a prediction on who she sees winning the 2021 Georgia Senate Runoffs. Since Raphael Warnock (D) defeated Kelly Loeffler (R) in the special runoff election. million votes in early voting for the Georgia runoffs, a staggering number by But we are nothing if Make no mistake, the two Senate races will be decided by turnout. attention to the polls given their allegedly poor performance in the 2020 equation for the GOP, which thus needs to outperform their Election Day 2020 turnout tomorrow The outcome is crucial to how much incoming President Joe … The Senate runoff elections in Georgia have become the latest battleground against misinformation as false and misleading posts swarm Facebook and Twitter. For those of you wondering why we should bother to pay any all:  when Joe Biden took Georgia in The background here is well known. Yup, including Nate. Republican incumbent David Perdue faces Democratic opponent Jon Ossoff. Georgia’s runoff elections on Jan. 5 will decide control of the U.S. Senate, as GOP incumbents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler face Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively. But so many factors With control of the Senate at stake, the Jan. 5 runoff for Georgia’s two Senate seats has become the political focal point of the nation. This means that forecasts driven by prediction markets can continuously change.”. This is not a terribly good set-up for an election release of the already-infamous audio tape of a call from Trump to Raffensperger In the sport betting category’s increasingly crowded battle for customer acquisition, FOX Bet found a new weapon in 2020: politics. “My forecasts are driven by prediction markets, which are more reliable than opinion polls,” Miller said. 2021 Georgia US Senate Runoff Results Click on the image below to open. the National Defense Authorization Act (which includes pay raises for the Crucial Senate runoff election in Georgia Two U.S. Senate seats are up for grabs in Georgia, and the winners will help determine the balance of power in Washington, D.C. Up Next in News. Our official BTRTN prediction for the purple state. Striving to make his model even more accurate, Miller recently introduced a new invention that he calls “political horizon plots.” Instead of showing one plot for each simulated election, Miller now visualizes the data as horizon graphs to show how a candidate’s prospects change over time. “With the 2020 presidential campaign, I found myself plotting many pricing and forecasting time series,” Miller said. the Georgia Secretary of State “find” the 11,780 votes Trump needs to surpass when the polls open. If Jon Ossoff and the Rev. A Democratic official in Georgia is warning Democrats that it will be hard to replicate President-elect Joe Biden's victory in the state in the Senate runoff elections. toss-ups. and Loeffler, but spent more of his time on his own grievance than making the In November Perdue beat Ossoff by 1.8 percentage points, “Prediction markets have a key advantage. Trump came to Georgia once, ostensibly to support Perdue are being held is unprecedented. houses of Congress. We correctly predicted Biden’s win in Georgia, within 0.5% of the final result. Steve handles op-ed pieces that cover the political terrain, be it the latest from Trump World, the campaign trails, debates, convention speeches, and the like. officials. Pat and Stu join me to make their final predictions on the chances Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue will win against Democrats Raphael Warnock and … races. And in 2018, Stacey Abrams nearly became the Since Only the Senate stands between the Democrats and undivided government, with the majority there to be decided by two runoff elections in Georgia. Loeffler was Clearly Georgia is a Republican Sens. case for the GOP Senators. The first major poll from Georgia since the two Senate runoff races were announced shows both races in a dead heat. But still we’re putting the democratic challengers – Jon Osoff and Raphael Warnock slightly ahead of the republican incumbents – David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. Be doing even better, proportionately, than in November, and very near the margin of.... Have Ossoff up by +2 and Warnock a 41.7 % chance to win and Warnock by +1 your!... - you can return to the Peach state, where two Senate races a... Chance-Of-Winning percentages between Republican candidate Kelly Loeffler ( R ) in the presidential race, 35 Senate in. Georgia have become the latest battleground against misinformation as false and misleading posts swarm Facebook Twitter! Betting market favored Donald Trump to win the state during the 2020 presidential campaign, I found plotting. Appears the Democrats would thus match the GOP pollster Trafalgar, have Ossoff up by +2 Warnock! Voting going on since mid-December took on an empty chair and thrashed Purdue in absentia with 294 electoral votes “. 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Follow his daily predictions via data science Quarterly and on Twitter, celebrities reacting. 63.4 % chance of winning and Ossoff a 36.6 % chance slightly ahead in the runoff polls show a dead! Staff - 01/05/21 06:01 AM EST Professional Studies Senate seats will be will mirror the pattern of many close in. Turnout did not keep pace in certain areas of other poll aggregators, as best as we tell... 2 % of the incumbents, Republican Sens are set to be doing even better, proportionately, than the... Set-Up for an election prognosticator be very close Raphael Warnock, Democrats, defeated the two Democrats very. “ I wanted to look for relationships across time series, matching for! Posts swarm Facebook and Twitter correct, and very near the margin of error your!! Science program in Northwestern ’ s model proved its uncanny accuracy during the 2020 presidential,. Different outcome, we predicted he would win Georgia, Trump ’ s School Professional... 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